![]() 06/08/2020 at 12:09 • Filed to: None | ![]() | ![]() |
Around mothers day most of Utah just decided that social distancing was for chumps and that it was time to play. About a week later we’re spiking. The strongest spike is about 9 days after memorial day weekend (a week to incubate and 3 days to figure out you are actually sick enough to get tested).
We were on track to have no deaths by august. Now....
So good job Utah. Granted about 200 of those new cases were from a single meat processing plant, but that doesn’t account for the continued surge in 9 of 13 reporting districts.
It’ s not impossible to be safe AND have most of your mobili ty back but people can’t handle that. People are working without safety precautions, gathering in large groups without masks and traveling without taking general safety precautions. I realize we all want this to be over...but it aint. the bu lk of new cases are from people being inside in groups together.
We’ve been camping and on short trips but we minimize our contact with locals, even gas stations , and when we do we wear masks (about 10% of the people we see) and wash hands and sani tize. Again, it’ s possible to mostly live your life and be safe...but just dropping the whole thing and pretending its normal is going to result in increased in sick and dead people, and frankly MORE restrictions. We’re not beyond going from yellow back to orange or red.
Humans are extremely short sighted.
Sorry for the downer
Have an artificial beach for a pick-me-up.
UPDATE: In my meeting right now I’m finding out that 30% of 1200 workers of that plant are po sitive and approx. 0% were social distancing. That this will be an interesting couple of weeks.
![]() 06/08/2020 at 12:12 |
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Social distancing is over. No one is going back to lockdown.
![]() 06/08/2020 at 12:16 |
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bu...bu...but I want to go out to eat and get my hair done and not wear a mask even if a property owner tells me I have to . I want my liberty and freedom!
![]() 06/08/2020 at 12:16 |
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What city is this plant in?
![]() 06/08/2020 at 12:17 |
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WHO new
![]() 06/08/2020 at 12:17 |
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You can have social distancing without a full lockdown.
And if this thing spreads to enough people that large numbers start dying, people won’t be going out regardless of whether there’s an official lockdown.
![]() 06/08/2020 at 12:17 |
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You could very well be right. That won’ t stop services from being restricted though. State and national parks will close, restaurants will close, business can force people back out of work. People be dumb.
![]() 06/08/2020 at 12:18 |
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Those two are different things. You can end a lockdown and still self- enforce social distancing and prevent infection.
![]() 06/08/2020 at 12:18 |
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Cache valley is all I know.
![]() 06/08/2020 at 12:18 |
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indeed.
![]() 06/08/2020 at 12:19 |
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We could but we won’t.
![]() 06/08/2020 at 12:19 |
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“self-enforce” lol
![]() 06/08/2020 at 12:20 |
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Those two things are not the same thing. A healthy dose of the first one avoids the second one.
![]() 06/08/2020 at 12:22 |
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Is that first graph the percentage of positives based on testing? Or just total positives?
You need both the number of tests, along with the # of positives, to get a good picture.
Also, as has been recently shown in the news, you need to know how many different people took the test. If you have a subset of people getting tested every week, they can skew a small sample size as well.
![]() 06/08/2020 at 12:23 |
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About 3 weeks ago mask usage was 90% in our grocery stores. Now it’s 10%, it’s like everyone forgot what the masks were for... and now we have tourists, and are no longer isolated from the rest of the country.
![]() 06/08/2020 at 12:27 |
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Thats new cases. All the data is here.
https://coronavirus.utah.gov/case-counts/
![]() 06/08/2020 at 12:27 |
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Social distancing was meant to help hospitals catch up and prepare, so that when we went back to normal life there would be resources to help those that needed hospitalization. Social distancing is not an effective long term approach to public health in a country of 300+ million people. Cases were always going to eventually keep increasing, hopefully not in one acute spike.
Apparently many hospitals continued to try and maximize profits instead of preparing properly. My sister is getting offered some pretty sweet bonuses in order to take on extra shifts now, since they’re still short staffed. They were laying people off over the last three months, cutting hours, sending doctors home and leaving floors empty instead of preparing for a second wave, which everyone knew was coming.
I can’t speak for hospitals in Utah, but if hospitals in Arizona get overwhelmed, the blame lies at the foot of the people managing them. You’re right, humans are extremely shirt sighted, especially when lots of money is involved.
![]() 06/08/2020 at 12:27 |
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I don’t know how well data is being disseminated in other states, but Ohio has a cool tool that lets your play with the data.
https://coronavirus.ohio.gov/wps/portal/gov/covid-19/dashboards/overview
Lots of good Bayesian statistical testing to do. Ohio hasn’t formally ended social distancing, but I’ve been seeing people practice it to a much lower degree of late than they were last month. Stores are generally doing a good job with sanitation and customer limits in my city. Restaurants are also doing pretty well sanitizing tables between customers, masking staff, and spreading tables apart. I went to a greasy spoon/bar that’s also a restaurant and was pleasantly surprised at the use of partitions.
![]() 06/08/2020 at 12:31 |
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100% this. My neighbors in Chicago likewise seemed to just decide a few weeks ago that they were done with it and every sunny day now there are about a dozen adults and a dozen kids throwing mini-blockparties out in the street. One dude even rolled out his BBQ the other day and started making hot dogs for everyone— not a mask in the bunch. All for liberty but public safety and public good pull some weight as well—it’s why we all explicitly or implicitly agree to laws (among other restrictions and services) . Immensely frustrating to be going it with no child care, no family visits, working from home, etc. while others have decided they know better and/or don’t care about the potential consequences.
![]() 06/08/2020 at 12:32 |
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I wouldn’t be too quick to judge the hospitals. We’re working really hard on surge plans but you can’t just add hospital beds (its a big deal to add beds...they are regulated. Yes, even with changes in the law), you can’t just order supplies from amazon...everyone wants them and the supply isn’t keeping pace with demand. There are things you can do and things you can’t. We’ve even put together a volunteer program to have people sew and build 5 million masks, shields and gowns and we are forecasting a need for more and are restarting the effort for another million. Plus even getting the proper material for that effort was a minor miracle. We’re also changing physician pay and redeploying caregivers at a high rate and we’re still getting railed in profits.
Social distancing needs to be a solution that exists until we can get a handle on the virus, not just until people are sick of it. It IS possible to have lives and run the country AND do basic precautions to prevent spikes.
![]() 06/08/2020 at 12:48 |
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Ugh. Texas is going through the same thing , and it’s really sad. People who knew what they were talking about were right, and our states didn’t listen to them. Now we’re going to drag this out needlessly and more people will suffer.
I’m so over all of this. “I should move to the ‘Ring” feels less like a running gag/possible retirement plan and more like something to plan for sooner every damn day.
The friend I’ve been “quaranteamed” with by sheer merit of “you have my race car” and I are thinking about doing the middle-of-nowhere thing. Sounds like a good idea.
![]() 06/08/2020 at 12:51 |
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Gah, the lack of mask use thing is real and terrifying. Sometimes I feel like I’m the only one still trying.
![]() 06/08/2020 at 12:54 |
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As has been said from the beginning of this, you wear the mask to keep your own cooties in and not vise versa. So thank you, turd polishers, for exercising your constitutional rights to grab your AR-15 and leave your mask at home and get me and my family sick sooner. Much obliged.
My daughter and her husband live in Logan and are due to deliver our first grandchild in about six weeks. We are hoping to drive there at that time. We’ll be breaking out the N95s for that trip and staying in our tent trailer and our first photos with our new grandchild will have us masked.
![]() 06/08/2020 at 12:56 |
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Texas has a similar tool : https://txdshs.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/ed483ecd702b4298ab01e8b9cafc8b83
It definitely looks like you’re faring better than us, though. It’s as if Texas went, “Curve? What curve? LEEEEROOOOOOYYYYY JEEEEEEENNNNNKKKKKIIIIIIINNNNNSSSSSS!!!”
![]() 06/08/2020 at 12:56 |
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Social distancing isn’t a solution, but a means of keeping back the enemy until reinforcements arrive in the form of vaccines, treatments, et cetera. They know more about how to fight the virus with each passing week. The People of Utah have spoken.
![]() 06/08/2020 at 12:58 |
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The rumor is that the plant is JBS in Hyrum, about 20 miles south of Logan. If I were your daughter I wouldn’t leave the house unless I needed to for about 10 days at least...if she wasn’t already doing that.
![]() 06/08/2020 at 12:58 |
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Buy something on Craigslist from someone 100 miles away. Nice chance to see some country.
![]() 06/08/2020 at 12:59 |
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Yes, they pretty much are staying in.
![]() 06/08/2020 at 13:01 |
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My local county is decidedly Republican and the key indicator metrics they use are a little suspect IMO.
I feel like a key indicator shouldn’t be based on an OR statement...if you do have 2 criteria in one indicator it should be an AND statement, otherwise separate them.
Not to mention the indicators they are using probably down really tell the whole story. And guess which indicator does NOT get an excel 14 day trendline?
Of course the percent positives are going to go down as we test more (as will the confirmed cases go up).
![]() 06/08/2020 at 13:05 |
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While I don’t disagree, people need to understand that the gover nment can still put the brakes on a lot of things people want.
![]() 06/08/2020 at 13:05 |
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Wow, that’s a great UI.
![]() 06/08/2020 at 13:05 |
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Yeah. Unfortunate but true.
![]() 06/08/2020 at 13:06 |
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its the same kind of story here. The key indicators feel very fluid.
![]() 06/08/2020 at 13:06 |
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My son attended the big rally at HTU yesterday. He wore a mask the whole time, and I must say, looking at the live video, probably a solid 80% of marchers wore masks. My wife and I were at the HEB by UT at the same time, and I would say mask compliance was about 90%. So, at least in some parts of Austin, people are still masking.
![]() 06/08/2020 at 13:07 |
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It’s not so simple to say that hospitals are keeping an eye on their profits.
They have deferred non-emergency procedures on the advice of CDC and sometimes in order from the governor. And as a result have essentially killed their primary sources of revenue: https://www.cnbc.com/2020/05/05/hospitals-losing-millions-of-dollars-per-day-in-covid-19-pandemic.html
And I kind of understand what you’re saying, my wife has two weeks of furlough(thanks for your service in the ER; now deal with a couple weeks without pay).
![]() 06/08/2020 at 13:07 |
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How much of this could be attributed to more testing?
![]() 06/08/2020 at 13:12 |
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V ery little. O ur state epidemiologi st made that distinction in the press brief that this is a legit spike of cases and not due to increases in testing.
![]() 06/08/2020 at 13:14 |
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Can’t while unemployed/out of space. I gotta fix my own turds first.
![]() 06/08/2020 at 13:15 |
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On thing people lose sight of is that social distancing is a spectrum. If you cut down store trips by half; only get together with one other household at a time and space out your socialization to every 7 days or so; and socialize more outdoors and remain distanced- you might not be at 0% for risk of transmission but you’ll likely be well below what you would be if you lived your Normal life. And you could likely use contact tracing to cutoff the spread if others followed suit.
There needs to be a concerted effort by people to strive for less contact, not none. But people are crappy at self policing in grey areas and dealing with inconvenience.
![]() 06/08/2020 at 13:17 |
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When I get the chance , I say, “I’m wearing this mask out of courtesy to YOU.” The obvious implication being that they are . . . not being courteous to me by standing there without a mask.
Hasn’t improved the mask usage, unfortunately.
![]() 06/08/2020 at 13:20 |
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Exactly. I will likely be working on messaging for exactly this in the co ming weeks. Videos on renewed emphasis on mask and SD
![]() 06/08/2020 at 13:23 |
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I believe you and I are on the same page.
![]() 06/08/2020 at 13:32 |
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They had a whole bunch of extra beds when they cancelled elective surgeries. Obviously they aren’t willing to do that again because it wrecked their profit margins.
People are finding all sorts of creative ways to get around regulations right now. If they wanted to, they could.
Our healthcare system needs reform. The only people that seem to be fighting against this is the healthcare system (nurses seem to be pushing for reform, though).
If by “changing physician pay” you mean reducing physician pay, then that’s an absolute joke. Reduce CEO and administrative pay. Keep paying the people actually fighting this thing.
![]() 06/08/2020 at 13:34 |
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Instead of just eating it (like almost every other business has done through this thing), they decided to cut staff and continue to save a buck.
Total BS that you and your wife have to deal with that. Wonder how the CEO of her hospital is doing?
![]() 06/08/2020 at 13:59 |
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Are you against restricting elective surgery? Im confused. Obviously the hospitals want to do elective surgery as its highly profitable but it was 100% the right call to cancel it during what was obviously a growth curve in a pandemic. People rail against hospital profits but you can’t provide even shitty healthcare if you’re insolvent and there are a lot of reasons to have profits and not just net zero. Charity care, expansion, reserves,legal liability etc.
There are a LOT of things that make healthcare expensive and it’s not all in the hospitals court. Lets not forget that a lot of the cost of healthcare is wrapped up in things we all think are good: Malpractice insurance, regulations to keep devices and and supplies clean and safe, regulation that provides consistent care quality, research that produces new drugs and treatments.
There are many many things we can be doing to reform healthcare and some are certainly trying, but I think you are vastly overestimating what hospitals have control of in this regard.
And yes, I mean reducing pay and yes it makes a HUGE difference. We’re promising no less than 85% base pay for physician, even if you aren’t seeing patients. That’s REALLY expensive and it comes out of profit reserve. We have 2400 providers in the group. If you average their salary to 150k/yr (conservative) thats 54 million bucks. (remember that a lot of these are being paid to NOT see patients out of public safety concerns and thus aren’t generating rev.)
about 3% of our CEO’s pay, which is only 60% of industry average to start with.
Now I can’t say all hospitals or systems run like ours. Some are very shortsighted in terms of cash reserve. Some are forced to reduce overhead to survive. Again, you lose a LOT of beds if a hospital can’t pay to keep the lights on. You make it sound like its a cut and run for these guys but do you realize how much less costly it is to maintain a physician than recruit and hire new ones, even to get them back? These are desperate people looking to try and survive. I can’t say They don’t deserve the financial situation they are in, but I can say that its less likely greed and avarice and more likely survival.
![]() 06/08/2020 at 14:04 |
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I run recruiting for my company which is not in the healthcare space, and have family members intimately involved in hospital administration. Allow me to offer some insight.
Hospitals wanted badly
to keep doing as many elective surgeries as possible, to keep revenue flowing. Everything up to and including brain surgery is considered “elective,” even if there’s a high level of need or urgency to have it done sooner than later. This accounts for roughly 75% of all hospital revenue.
In many cases they
had to cut back or completely eliminate elective surgeries both
because of the need to free up beds for potential covid surges, and/or because they were ordered to do so by governors (as mentioned by another commenter here).
The hospitals wanted to be able to manage the flow of elective surgeries themselves to balance revenue & covid surge capacity but were often forbidden from doing so. Whether this was the right move is debatable.
They were also asking for revenue support where if they had to forego all the elective surgery revenue in the name of covid surge capacity, they wanted the govt to backstop them to make sure they had enough funding for the covid side of things. That somewhat happened in one of the later stimulus bills.
If you look at basically any hospital’s job board right now they’ve got an entire section just for covid related jobs. They’ve been trying to staff up those areas while at the same time they’ve been furloughing or laying off employees in other areas. They’re trying as much as they can to cross-train and reassign people but that’s not always feasible.
There’s also still an acute shortage of PPE although not as bad as it had been a couple months ago. The procurement and supply chain stuff is continuing to be a nightmare.
I certainly can’t speak for every hospital, but it’s not a simple mater of profits vs. preparedness.
![]() 06/08/2020 at 14:06 |
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I’m glad I live in an area that mandates mask use while patronizing businesses.
![]() 06/08/2020 at 14:08 |
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Ohio has consistently impressed me because they have a Republican governor who unlike most other Republican governors is actually trying to be competent at public health .
![]() 06/08/2020 at 14:17 |
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Its weird here in Ohio, we were one of the first states to start to shut everything down. But w e have been opening stuff back up since may 5th and we have stayed level to decline. Our only real up tic k was when we found out covid had gotten into 2 prisons.
And mask wearing is maybe 50:50 at best. It has been 10+ days since our first protests as well, w hich would have made you think numbers would have jumped but nope
![]() 06/08/2020 at 14:21 |
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Also relevant:
![]() 06/08/2020 at 14:24 |
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It is really staggering seeing the infection rates from meat processing plants - think there were a couple of big ones in the mid-west a few weeks ago? With like 50%+ infection rates.
It’s a crappy situation - very poor people doing crappy jobs who need the money, an industry with a history of undocumented workers (i.e. less likely to make complaints), and companies/governments requiring the bare minimum safety requirements, if any. And of course these people go back in to the community and spread the disease too - as individuals I don’t even know what choice they have other than to show up to work and face the very real possibility of getting sick.
p.s. here in Oregon YESTERDAY we had the highest daily increase to date in the number of cases - 146 in one day. The day before that was also the highest to date. Of course restrictions started getting eased just about two weeks ago.
Add to that all the protests going on (absolutely 100% supportive of the cause, and am glad to see very high degrees of mask usage) I’m worried to see how the COVID numbers are going to trend over the coming weeks.
![]() 06/08/2020 at 14:41 |
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I saw a group of teens playing volleyball at the high school, in fact during the whole lockdown I’ve seen teens gathering together closely with no masks. Some would meet in SUVs parked across from each other sitting in the back with the hatches up. I saw maybe 8 SUVs in a ring one time. But they are all just doing whatever now.
![]() 06/08/2020 at 14:57 |
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Yeah, he’s had a very non-controversial term thus far, except the massively divisive heartbeat abortion ban. So call it 1-1 on public health.
![]() 06/08/2020 at 15:13 |
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I suppose I should confine my praise to the handling of covid then.
![]() 06/08/2020 at 15:18 |
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The main thing that separates him from other conservative governors IMO is having selected a qualified Department of Health director and actually listening to them.
![]() 06/08/2020 at 15:29 |
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This virus may be a permanent part of our lives that we have to live with forever, we need to consider that possibility and formulate plans based on that being the likelihood. Any vaccine 1) will take nearly 2 years to get into widespread distribution, in an idea circumstance; 2) may not be effective for all strains, 3) may take longer than the best case timeline to hit the market, given uncertainties in R&D, and 4) might not even happen, like with the other 6 coronaviruses that cause disease in humans, and for which no successful vaccine has ever been found. We need to operate under the assumption that salvation is not around the corner, figure out a way to get as close to normal as possible under that condition, and celebrate if/when a vaccine comes as a happy bonus. Turning 327 million people into antisocial basement dwelling incels for two years or more, interrupting nearly all normal human behavior and activities, and throwing over 1/5 of the country out of work for at least is not a sustainable solution, and anyone who thinks any of that can be kept up until there’s a vaccine is naive to the extreme . Its obvious that these guidelines are created by people who have guaranteed steady employment regardless of how much of the rest of the world melts down, are already close to retirement and could do it now if they have to , and/or have social lives that consist of light gardening and falling asleep to 60 Minutes.
You will have riots and civil unrest in cities all over the country if people are kept socially distanced and out of work for too long, and once those happen, social distancing will be nullified regardless of government action.
![]() 06/08/2020 at 15:37 |
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https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/data/new-cases-50-states/utah
https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/testing/individual-states/utah
The thing with sample size is you start hitting a point where you get diminshing returns for increasing testing numbers . This also gets screwed up in situtations where the thing you are testing is changing. the sample only really tell at that point in time. what gets screwy is who is being tested and how often.
![]() 06/08/2020 at 15:43 |
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There have been people handing out masks to people not already wearing them at the marches in Phoenix. The only group of people noticeably not wearing them are the police.
![]() 06/08/2020 at 16:01 |
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I really hate how “listen to science in the middle of a pandemic ” has become a political issue. This is truly the dumbest timeline.
![]() 06/08/2020 at 16:15 |
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I mean, let’s face it. Republicans don’t pay attention to silly things like “facts” or “numbers” or “science.”
![]() 06/08/2020 at 16:37 |
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Well given this is a Republican-heavy state, all those Trump supporters are getting an education in the truth and reality.
![]() 06/08/2020 at 17:04 |
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The people refusing to mask up will absolutely not understand that extremely obvious implication.
![]() 06/08/2020 at 17:09 |
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… which they will then deny, or somehow try to blame on Obama/Hillary/Biden/Soros.
“Learning” doesn’t stick with these turds.
![]() 06/08/2020 at 17:24 |
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Oh some of them will, some won’t.
I personally know someone from Georgia who is staying away from Georgia at a cottage in another state
because of COVID and because she’s immune compromised
. And she’s on the Republican side of things too, but without being a moron.
![]() 06/08/2020 at 22:23 |
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I have a dumbass cousin who reading between the lines, never starte SD let alone let up. Meanwhile all hes done is complain how he can’t do this or that. Since mid April, youve been able to golf, and most all other things. Is not going out to dinner tru ly the end of the world?
![]() 06/09/2020 at 08:11 |
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Well...they do...they just select which numbers and facts they want to pay attention to. These are all facts in this criteria, but it’s woefully insufficient at telling the whole story, is selective in how it’s applied, and the “trendlines” literally look like someone just added a straight line in excel.
![]() 06/11/2020 at 10:26 |
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Austin’s still
pretty good about it, all things considered
. I can’t remember where I was that was just like, nah! the other day, but I think it was closer in to downtown. Grumble.
![]() 06/11/2020 at 10:28 |
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My wife reminded me that people at the HTU rally were required to have a mask. I think they were passing them out to people who didn’t have them. Still, it hasn’t been quite one week yet since the rally. Still waiting to see if my son gets sick....
![]() 06/13/2020 at 10:24 |
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That’s responsible on behalf of the rally organizers. Good for them.
![]() 06/13/2020 at 11:46 |
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We watched some of it on TV. The cross section of society was impressive. Young, old, black, white, families with kids, people on horseback, all of it.
![]() 06/14/2020 at 12:25 |
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So rad. I love it.